Record sales of 1.5 million homes are expected for this year and the strongest house price growth in 2022 will continue in regional markets outside London.
Strong demand for homes in 2021 from home movers and first time buyers are set to see record sales of 1.5 million exceeding the highs of 2007 with £473 billion of sales agreed, says Zoopla.
The record sales and prices this year are not due to the government’s stamp duty holiday and other factors re-shaping the housing market drives demand which is 25-30% higher than the 5-year average.
House price growth in 2022 will continue at a slower rate of 3% per year compared to 6% by the end of this year with the strongest growth in the North West and Wales at 4% next year.
Regional markets to benefit in 2022
UK house price growth is at 6.6% per year with all regions ahead of the 5-year annual average other than London with the lowest rise of 2.3%.
Homes in London have been impacted the most by the pandemic as home movers leave the capital to find homes with more internal and external space.
There is further potential for growth in affordable regional markets and a direct relationship between the rate of price rise and affordability.
This table from Zoopla shows average annual house price growth for each region to September 2021.
| Region | Annual growth |
|---|---|
| Wales | 10.4% |
| North West | 8.8% |
| Northern Ireland | 8.3% |
| South Wes | 7.8% |
| East Midland | 7.7% |
| Yorkshire & Humber | 7.6% |
| Northern East | 6.7% |
| West Midlands | 6.6% |
| Eastern | 6.1% |
| South East | 6.1% |
| Scotland | 5.3% |
| London | 2.3% |
Wales is leading with house price growth of 10.4% per year and some northern regional towns are rising above 10% such as Blackburn and Rochdale.
These higher house prices allow the equity release buyer to access cash based on provider loan to values for a lifetime mortgage and for any purpose, such as home extension or gifting to family.
Affordability is the relationship of earnings to house prices and in the North West this is 5.4 times, Wales is 4.6 times compared to London at 11.6 times.
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Homebuyers are helped by the current low interest rates and many regions outside southern England are affordable by historic standards.
Data from Zoopla shows there is potential for above average house price rise in regional markets whereas in London properties remain the least affordable even though it has improved by 10% since 2016.
Pandemic still to impact the market
The pandemic forced people to work from home revealing the limitations and homeowners will continue to re-evaluate their housing needs in 2022.
Zoopla completed a survey of UK households and 22% are ‘eager’ or ‘very eager’ to find a new place to live in the next eighteen months due directly to the experience with the pandemic.
However, 60% were happy where they are and this applied particularly to older and established families whereas younger households and growing families were more keen to move.
Rather than moving, remortgage buyers with equity in their property can take advantage of very low interest rates to release capital to increase space such as a loft conversion or extension.
For those eager to move, 46% said their current home no longer suited their requirements, for 28% it was personal motivation such as to be near family and for 18% it was changes in work patterns.
Although countrywide lockdowns are unlikely in the future, employers have retained a more flexible process for workers and this is likely to influence the decisions for housing in 2022.
The number of sales in 2022 is expected to fall by 20% to 1.2 million returning to the long term average but remains higher than house sales over the decade.
What are your next steps?
Talk to our London City Mortgage brokers for advice if you are planning to remortgage your existing home for the latest mortgage deal. Learn more by using the property value tracker chart and equity release calculator.
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To release equity from your property to repay an existing mortgage or make home improvements, we can recommend lifetime mortgages so begin your equity release quote for the latest provider deals.
